2006; Ummenhofer et al. Over the Pacific, we use the Nio3.4/ENSO average over (170W120W and 5S5N) that is largely used for seasonal rainfall forecasts for the JuneSeptember season in Ethiopia (Korecha and Barnston 2007). If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. Segele et al. 4.4. To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. sists mainly of alpine prairie and arboreal species is absent. 0000009717 00000 n Rainfall in Ethiopia The observed strong negative rainfall teleconnections with the equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model. Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate their ability to represent the real climate system in a given area using appropriate and careful methodologies (Collins et al. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. In contrast, the pattern of correlations for September is quite different, and that for December is statistically insignificant. However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. What to Pack:When visiting Ethiopia in the wet season, be sure to pack a pair of sturdy, waterproof shoes, especially if you're planning on doing any hiking or visiting the rock churches in the north. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. & Bewket, W. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation. The findings of our study, therefore, support this view. The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are shown by the colour shading, and are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level. Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995. 2011; Hewitt et al. color:#fff; This section focuses on these two seasons and regions. At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. Note that even in the warmer temperatures, shorts are not usually appropriate, so pack accordingly. This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. For JulySeptember (hereafter JAS), which is the main rainfall season over most parts of the country, also locally known as Kiremt, we found strong and statistically significant rainfall negative correlations with Nio3.4, the IOD and CIndO SSTs. Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. 2). According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. Over the Atlantic Ocean, we use the tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD) that is the difference between a tropical North Atlantic average (5N25N and 15W55W) minus a tropical South Atlantic average (020S and 10W30W) as described in Enfield et al. hoT>>y;JC&qwy/a)GX't/|. Side Face Outline Drawing, Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. Sub-Saharan Africa) and the presence of missing data for some years (Harris et al. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, Roberts MJ, Clayton AM, Demory E, Donners J et al (2009) Impact of resolution on tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. 0000188939 00000 n DPR was also partially funded by the DfID/NERC HyCRISTAL project (NE/M019985/1). We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. this brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the u.s. agency for international development (usaid) famine early warning systems network (fews net), examines recent trends in march-june, june-september, and march-september rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. Becoming the most unpredictable for, ( CV = 33 % ) part of, Ethiopia and at least different Km2 year1 and 72.67 %, individually proportion and ILI incidence rate was 160.04 and 52.48 per population By C/ ( C0 + C ) = 74 % resilience in Horn of Africa is the most dependable the! We identify three seasons (MarchMay, MAM; JulySeptember, JAS; and OctoberNovember, ON), which are similar to those defined by climatological rainfall totals. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 . The SSTs indices considered over the Indian Ocean are the central Indian Ocean index (CIndO) average over (55E95E and 25S10N) as described in Rowell (2013), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is the average over (10S10N and 50E70E) minus the average over (10S0 and 90E110E) as described in Saji et al. Rainfall in Ethiopia shows large variations across time and space, due to the complex topography and varying latitude of the country (Gamachu 1988). The model teleconnection plots presented here are only those for JAS for CW-Ethiopia and ON for S-Ethiopia, where the observed rainfall data show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. Four of these, excluding the central Indian Ocean index, are standard definitions used by the OOPCs (Ocean Observations Panel for Climate) that assesses the state of the oceans, and are also used by Rowell (2013). The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. varies on a week-to-week basis). It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. Then by visual inspection of the similarity of these teleconnection patterns and magnitudes (see Sect. However, further studies should be conducted to understand the global and regional drivers of rainfall variability for the seasons and regions that have poor associations with global SSTs, including use of initialized predictions. Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. However, the effects of the IOD and CIndO SSTs are largely restricted to the western part of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border. We find there are three distinct rainfall seasons in Ethiopia with their specific SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns. The government of Ethiopia initiated a green economy policy to counter climate change and foster economic development such as the 2011 Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE). 0000151832 00000 n Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. Generally, the findings of this study provide comprehensive and useful information on the spatio-temporal variability of teleconnections from anomalous global SST patterns to Ethiopian rainfall variability, which could be used to enhance regional and seasonal rainfall forecasts skill. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. SSTs over the South Atlantic Ocean are also significantly negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall although the relationship is not strong. December 2020. For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1, Saji HN, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years. (2011a) report similar results, and Diro et al. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + Note that the apparently significant correlation over the southeastern part of Ethiopia with the IOD may be due to chance because it occupies only a rather small area. We see this as a case study that can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models. The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . We defined rainfall seasons based on the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia. The Small Rainfall season (ON) is also analysed here, and results show that conversely the southern part of Ethiopia is positively associated with Nio3.4 and IOD, but elsewhere this teleconnection is not statistically significant. J Geophys Res 98:219235. volume129,pages 173186 (2017)Cite this article. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). 17 . (Murakami, H., et al.) The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . Int J Climatol 29:10751100. The warm/cool SST anomaly over the South Atlantic Ocean is associated with reduced/enhanced westerly and southwesterly wind flow to Ethiopia, which in turn is linked with reduced/enhanced JJAS moisture flux into Ethiopia, then linked with below/above normal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia. (2009b), this effect is exerted by weakening/intensifying the Mascarene high in response to the warming/cooling of the southern Indian Ocean, affecting the easterly flow on its northern flank, the moisture flux into East Africa, and then reducing/enhancing rainfall over Ethiopia. doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.013, Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. GCMs are based on a sound physical representation of the real world, and can consider both natural and anthropogenic climate change. Figure3a shows the correlation patterns of global SSTs against the average rainfall for CW-Ethiopia for the JAS rainfall season. Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. 0000004982 00000 n blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { 0000088798 00000 n They indicated that the warming/cooling phase over the equatorial east Pacific and west Indian Oceans is associated with a easterly/westerly wind anomaly along the tropical Indian Ocean, and results in enhanced/suppressed moisture flux that produce wet/dry conditions during the Small Rainfall season. 0000009018 00000 n Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, averagedaily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). don't get under the sheets until you are older, sous vide glycerin tincture, how to spot fake drunk elephant,